Motorized Transportation and Emissions
Motorized transportation on land, sea, and air largely depends on internal combustion engines powered by fossil fuels, which contribute significantly to CO2 emissions. The transport sector alone accounts for over a third of CO2 emissions from end-use sectors.
Clean Energy Transition
Transitioning to clean energy within the transportation sector is crucial to align with the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario. This involves implementing a broad range of policies aimed at promoting less carbon-intensive travel options and enhancing energy efficiency across all modes of transport. To meet the Net Zero Scenario targets, transport emissions need to be reduced by around 25% by 2030, even as the demand for transportation continues to rise. This can be achieved by encouraging a shift to more sustainable travel methods, such as walking, cycling, and public transportation, and by adopting more efficient technologies like electric vehicles (EVs).
Electric Cars and Trucks
The electric car market is one of the most dynamic areas in clean energy. Recent years have seen significant growth in EV sales, along with improvements in range (travel on a single charge), model variety, and performance. It is estimated that more than 20% of new cars sold in 2024 will be electric. Electric vehicles are a crucial technology for decarbonizing road transport, a sector that contributes to about one-sixth of global emissions. Continued ambitious policies are essential to drive growth in the electric vehicle market globally.
EV Charging Station
The future of EV charging time is evolving with technologies such as Level 3 and 4 fast charging, which can deliver a full charge in under six minutes using renewable energy, independent of the grid. This technology supports a truly sustainable and environmentally friendly solution with features like:
o DC to DC charging: Enables vehicles to charge efficiently in just minutes.
o Graphene-based electrostatic energy storage: Provides a clean, transportable, and 100% renewable energy source.
o Fast charging up to 360 kW: Offers a safe and rapid charging option.
o Grid-integrated or off-grid: Energy storage systems can integrate with the grid or use renewable sources like solar for a completely off-grid solution.
Projected EV Growth
If the current growth rate of EV sales continues, the transportation sector can align with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Despite significant growth in regions like China, Europe, and parts of the United States, electric vehicles have yet to achieve global penetration. Sales in developing and emerging countries remain low, primarily due to higher initial costs and insufficient charging infrastructure.
The global electric car fleet is expanding rapidly, with 2024 sales projected to reach 17 million. This growth means that more than one in five cars sold worldwide this year will be electric. The rising demand is expected to reshape the global auto industry and significantly reduce oil consumption in road transport, as highlighted in the IEA’s latest Global EV Outlook.
USA EV Sales are Gaining Momentum
Electric car markets are seeing robust growth as sales neared 14 million in 2023. The share of electric cars in total sales has increased from around 4% in 2020 to 18% in 2023. EV sales are expected to continue strongly through 2024. Over 3 million electric cars were sold in the first quarter, about 25% more than in the same period last year.
We currently expect to see around 17 million in sales by the end of 2024, representing a more than 20% year-on-year increase with new purchases accelerating in the second half of this year. As a result, electric cars could account for over one in five cars sold across the full calendar year. National policies and incentives, along with increasing price competition, will help bolster sales.
Based on current policies and trends, the rollout of electric vehicles is set to avoid the need for nearly 6 million barrels of oil a day by 2030.
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